What Happens if the Vote is Out?

An Out vote is looking increasingly likely so it is time to think about what happens. A few things to consider:

* The referendum only gives a mandate to leave (or remain). It says nothing about what should replace the EU should we leave.

* We can hardly settle this by having a series of further referenda.

* So it will be up to the government of the day to decide and get the necessary legislation through parliament.

* There is 40 years of legislation made under EU or Common Market membership to unravel and replace with whatever alternative the government comes up with.

* Much of this will depend on negotiating agreements with many other parties including the EU which itself takes years.

* There is a large majority in the house in favour of remaining who will not be inclined to cooperate.

* The PM (whoever that turns out to be) will have a slim party majority which is extremely divided.

* The fixed term parliament act means this cannot be solved by calling a general election unless parliament supports it.

* Other parties will demand a price for cooperating. In particular the SNP will have an extremely strong case for another Scottish referendum (we too want our sovereignty and we didn’t like being forced out of the EU by the British parliament)

* Even Brexit supporters admit there will a short term financial crisis (you only have to look at the relationship between the pound and the probability of Brexit)

* Financial crises are made worse by uncertainty.

On the whole I hope that if we leave Boris gets his wish of becoming PM. Then he can sort out the mess he helped create.

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